Why So Few Marginal MLB Players Got Qualifying Offers

Monday at FanGraphs I explained why teams were more reluctant to make qualifying offers to marginal players like Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, and Brandon Moss this year as opposed to last year. Last year, marginal players adjusted their QO acceptance strategy; this year, teams adjusted back.

None of the marginal players I mentioned — Valbuena, Rasmus, Moss, Volquez, Saunders, Napoli, Holliday, Fister, Cecil, or Pagan — received qualifying offers.

Tagged , ,

Instructions for the 2017 Orioles

Over at Camden Depot, I wrote 1,800 words about what the Orioles should do this offseason. My assignment was to help them build a competitive roster for $160 million. See how well I did!

Tagged ,

Why are the Orioles Overperforming their BaseRuns?

Yesterday at FanGraphs I dug more deeply into why the Orioles are overperforming their BaseRuns win percentage. They’ve done this seven years in a row. By analyzing all 450 team-seasons since 2002, I was able to find a few common factors.

Are Strikeouts Costing the Orioles Wins?

Yesterday at FanGraphs, I posted the first piece in a research project that looked at how strikeouts relate to over-achievement in the standings, where “over-achievement” is defined as “actual wins minus projected wins”. The research is timely because it involves the Orioles, who consistently over-achieve in the standings despite having a higher-than-average strikeout rate.

How to Judge the Atlanta Braves’ Rebuild

Last Friday at FanGraphs I wrote a bit about how fans should feel about the Atlanta Braves’ rebuild. To me, the judgement of the rebuild itself isn’t as important as coming up with a systematic way of measuring it. Either way I’m pretty pleased with the results.

Tagged ,

Ubaldo Jimenez Found His Mechanics at the Right Time

In my latest post for FanGraphs I examine Ubaldo Jimenez’s four good starts in the context of the Orioles’ playoff run.

Tagged , ,

The Brewers’ Incredibly High Attempted-Steal Rate

Welcome back from the long Labor Day weekend!

Last Friday at FanGraphs I showed how the Brewers’ attempted-steal rate is far and away the highest of any team this year. Their baserunning belongs in 1987, not 2016.


The Orioles are Avoiding Stolen Bases like the Plague

In my last article at Camden Chat (*sniff*), I use the 2016 Orioles’ potentially record-setting refusal to steal bases as a pretext for examining how they’ve approached basestealing throughout their tenure in Baltimore.

Tagged , ,

Joining FanGraphs + Royals’ Strikeouts

I’m thrilled beyond words to announce that I’ll be writing for FanGraphs and The Hardball Times on a freelance basis. I’ve been reading these sites for eight years and think they post the highest-quality baseball analysis and commentary out there. It is a surreal but amazing feeling to see my name on their site and to be a part of their staff. Quite literally, a dream come true.

My first article is about the KC Royals’ notable rise in strikeouts this year. Hope you enjoy it!

J.J. Hardy has Recovered from his Torn Labrum

You may recall that J.J. Hardy played all of 2015 with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. You may also recall that 2015 was by far his worst offensive season ever, as he altered his swing to accommodate the injury and had poor results to show for it.

Well in 2016 Hardy is back hitting the ball hard and has very good results to show for it.

Tagged ,