Coming up Small in Big Spots

Over at Camden Chat (where else?) I look at how the Orioles have been failing miserably to hit when the game’s on the line.

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Looking at Steve Pearce and Jimmy Paredes

A two-fer! Well, not really, I just forgot to post my analysis of Steve Pearce’s slow start earlier, focusing on how pitchers are changing their approach to him:

This is Steve Pearce’s brand-new baseball game: one in which he sees more and more breaking and offspeed pitches. This is the adjustment opposing teams are making against him, one they’ve been making since 2012.

There’s no question he’s hitting the ball hard. His hard-hit rate is at 36.8%, the highest of his career by far, and is 26th-best in baseball — ahead of Chris Davis, Buster Posey, andDavid Ortiz (just to cherry pick some names). As a result his ISO is an astounding .329 and his line-drive rate is a superlative 28.8%. The hard-hit rate coupled with his speed has boosted his BABIP to an otherworldly .400.


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The 2014 Orioles hit poorly in the daytime

Over at Camden Chat, I discussed how poorly the 2014 Orioles hit when the sun was shining vs. when the owls were hooting and whether fans should expect that to continue in 2015:

…The Orioles had a wOBA of .310 in day games last year, 19 points worse than their night-time wOBA of .329. That’s a lot of offense to “lose” over the course of a season. In fact, since the average team had a wOBA of .310 during the day last year, you can say the Orioles were an average offensive team when the sun was shining. At night though, they turned into Mr. Hyde: their .329 wOBA was far and away better than the major-league average of .312.

I’m Writing at!

Last month I was approached by the editor of to see if I wanted to write for them. I met the editor, Drew Jenkins, at the SABR 44 convention in Houston this past July.

Since joining I’ve written two articles: a visual examination of batters’ contact vs. power and an explanation of strand rate (LOB%). I think the site has great potential to co-exist alongside FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, and Baseball Prospectus.

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3 Keys for the Orioles in 2015

Baseball season must be approaching, because I’ve been writing a lot at Camden Chat recently. This time I wrote about keys to the Orioles’ contending in 2105:

This is an important year for the Orioles. Two offensive cornerstones, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters, are free agents after it. If their agent Scott Boras has anything to say about it, they’re no sure bet to return to the team. This could also be the last Birdland year for Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O’Day, and seven other players. If one were to talk about such concepts as “windows”, one could suggest that the Orioles’ window is narrower this year than it was last year.

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What does the future hold for Adam Jones?

Over at Camden Chat, I looked at players similar to Adam Jones and how they performed after age 28:

The list of similar players includes a hitting savant who was suspended twice for PEDs, one of the freest-swinging power hitters in recent memory, a Bash Brother who’s now best known for his inane/slightly depressing tweets, an upstanding Hall of Famer who was once hunted by a PI hired by George Steinbrenner, and two of the biggest prospect busts of the last decade.

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Things, Part 2

Tape Measure

Duct Tape

Things, Part 1



Replay Helped and Hurt the Orioles in 2014

Over at Camden Chat, I used Baseball Prospectus’s 2014 run expectancy data and Baseball Savant’s replay database to determine how many runs the Orioles gained on replay challenges vs. how many runs they lost.

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